Put these 3 retailers in your Christmas stocking

General retailers rely on consumers having a little bit of extra cash in their pocket, especially as the lights and the tinsel go up before Christmas. This is make-or-break time for the high street, and after a slow autumn due to warmer weather, they have a lot of catching up to do.

UBS now expects faster growth in UK households' disposable income next year, fuelled by a 50% slump in the price of oil. Although bad news for oil producers, consumers benefit from lower petrol prices and utility bills. Food is also getting cheaper and fixed rate mortgages have also fallen to record lows. That's why UBS pencils in household cash flow growth of 4.5% in 2015, versus this year's 3.6%. That must spell good news for the high street.

Of course, political risks are looming. As General Election fever takes hold, more focus will be drawn to proposals to tackle the deficit and its impact on consumer confidence. And sterling hasn't been as healthy lately, hit by delays to possible interest rate hikes. "Total reliance on lower oil prices could also be risky," says the broker. "We believe it could easily reverse."

Still, over Christmas, UBS prefers the hard-line retailers, especially given the impact of warmer weather and higher operational gearing. Their top picks include Home Retail, Dixons Carphone (DC.) and Debenhams.

Both Home Retail and DC also have robust self-help strategies to supplement the macro tailwinds. In the clothing space we think Debenhams offers a degree of resilience to the increased promotions seen elsewhere, albeit off a very low base.

However, the slow start to the period is expected weigh on both Marks and Spencer and Next, with other clothing retailers likely to struggle, too. Non-food sales at M&S are set to fall by 4% in its third quarter and UBS has shrunk its full-year pre-tax profit forecast by £10 million, although the medium-term gross margin upside looks intact.

Next has remained aloof again with its focus on full price sales and service levels, and we think full-year 2015 should be stable. However, there could be more cautious comments and the first half full-year 2016 outlook on 30 December given tough comps, and we rein back our expectation of profit growth here by around 4%.

This article is for information and discussion purposes only and does not form a recommendation to invest or otherwise. The value of an investment may fall. The investments referred to in this article may not be suitable for all investors, and if in doubt, an investor should seek advice from a qualified investment adviser.