Interactive Investor

The Oil Man: Oil price, Premier Oil

17th November 2016 10:23

by Malcolm Graham-Wood from interactive investor

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WTI $45.57 -24c, Brent $46.63 -32c, Diff -$1.06 -8c, NG $2.76 +5c

Oil prices drifted yesterday; to begin with there wasn't much news, so the American Petroleum Institute news from after the close eased things off a bit.

Later the Energy Information Administration (EIA) numbers proved to be worse: a build of 5.3 million barrels of crude and modest rises in products were bigger than expected, despite a rise in refinery utilisation from 87.1% to 89.2%. The EIA put this down to a rise in imports - last week 910/- barrels.

Fortunately, Russia came to the rescue, saying that it would support "any OPEC" decision at the upcoming meeting. Secretary General Barkindo is still travelling; at the moment he is meeting the Venezuelan oil minister in Caracas.

Premier Oil

A trading update from Premier this morning which is pretty much the same as other recent trading news, i.e. operationally things are going very well - with the usual exception of Solan, of course.

Production continues to beat estimates, at the moment it is 80/- barrels per day (b/d) with an annual average of 69/- b/d and recently upgraded guidance of 68-73/- b/d still very much achievable.

Catcher is still on target for production in 2017 and down 24% on costs, whilst at Sea Lion FEED work is ongoing and break-even costs are $45 per barrel and falling.

As to the debt, which stands at $2.8 billion, the good news is that the term sheet for the refinancing is in the "final stages" of renegotiation and it looks as if it is pretty well what the company needs.

It is for the full amount, gives headroom for Catcher, gives security and appropriate economics to the lenders and, as one might expect, has governance controls in the process.

This has all taken longer than expected and, of course, given rise to speculation in the market that some of the lending group were keen to jump ship - 'twas ever thus, I suspect - but it looks as if it has got far enough to be a runner…

At the moment I am still giving the Premier team the benefit of the doubt for doing a great job.

And finally…

The second test is underway and, after taking two quick wickets, it has all gone India's way; as I write they are 232-2. The most exciting news so far is that "tea was taken early after a dog invaded the pitch"...

Muzza had a long hard battle against Nishikori, but should be through to the semis at the 02.

And for goodness sake, Wayne Rooney having a swift one with a wedding party, where's the story? The game had been won and he wasn't in the friendly! I mean, if I ran into a blog reader at their wedding party…

This article is for information and discussion purposes only and does not form a recommendation to invest or otherwise. The value of an investment may fall. The investments referred to in this article may not be suitable for all investors, and if in doubt, an investor should seek advice from a qualified investment adviser.

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