Interactive Investor

Here's why FTSE 100 uptrend continues

22nd November 2016 14:53

by Lee Wild from interactive investor

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It's been steady rather than spectacular progress for both the FTSE 100 and mid-cap index Tuesday, which is in stark contrast to the party going on stateside. On Wall Street, the "holy trinity" of Dow Jones, NASDAQ and S&P 500 made record highs overnight, the first time they've achieved it together since 1999.

With the hot money betting that a deal to cut or freeze oil production is back on, energy plays are in favour, led in the US by Exxon Mobil and Chevron. Smaller players dominated last night's S&P leaderboard.

There's some spillover in London, with both Royal Dutch Shell and BP partly responsible for a surge in the FTSE 100 toward its highest since 10 November. If a deal does get done in Vienna on 30 November, expect another rush of demand for the black stuff.

And risk assets like equities remain in favour Tuesday afternoon. Buyers here might have lost some of their vigour - the leding index is well off its highs - but few Wall Street traders will want to leave short positions open over the Thanksgiving holiday which kicks off on Thursday. It explains why we've seen further gains over the pond this afternoon.

Miners are pick of the bunch here. With copper prices up again, it's no surprise to see Antofagasta chased higher, although Anglo American, Glencore and BHP Billiton lead the way.

Hope that chancellor Philip Hammond will have something for housebuilders in his red briefcase has the sector higher. Persimmon, Barratt Developments and Taylor Wimpey are doing well. For more on this, read Harriet Mann's article here.

Not all good news at Compass

It's not all good news, however, and in a busy day for trading updates, caterer Compass has come in for some stick.

Organic growth of 5% in the 12 months to September, flat margins and a big currency boost meant underlying pre-tax profit came in on target at £1.32 billion, up 14%.

However, with chief executive Richard Cousins admitting growth in 2017 would be weighted to the second half of the year, investors decided that a forward price/earnings (PE) ratio of 21, a big premium to the sector, prices in all the good news.

Ultra-reliable Halma

Among the mid-caps, ultra-reliable Halma didn't disappoint. As usual, revenue and profit all made new records and the dividend rose by 7%. Halma has increased its full-year payout by 5% or more every year for the past 37 years.

It's been a great performer over the years, although this time investors used lower-than-expected growth at a couple of recent acquisitions - Firetrace and CenTrak - as an excuse to take profits.

Reliability does not come cheap, and Halma trades on around 25 times forecast earnings. However, CEO Andrew Williams told me that project delays at these acquisitions were not typical and that both would start shipping soon.

Long-time ii favourite

Scapa is a long-time favourite at Interactive Investor, and the adhesives firm has been chased to new highs following strong growth in revenue, trading profit and margins. It also says full-year numbers will beat forecasts.

Amur Minerals was flying earlier. Trading at just 3.5p when our own Harriet Mann met management less than three weeks ago, the shares nudged 9.5p Tuesday morning.

The company, which one day hopes to mine nickel at the Kun-Manie prospect in eastern Siberia, has just signed a financial advisory agreement with Russia's Far East Investment and Export agency, recently set up to attract foreign investment.

That basically means Amur can work with the agency to find project funding from within Russia, India and China.

Elsewhere, AIM-listed Solid State is struggling. It's a popular supplier of so-called ruggedized computers to the military and emergency services, and its battery packs are used in oil pipeline inspection gauges.

Revenue fell by 9% in the first half to £20.1 million, although if you strip out £3.5 million of work on a now-cancelled Ministry of Justice contract it was flat. Add in sales at Creasefield, acquired in June, and it's up 9%.

Admittedly, there's less visibility as customers place shorter orders, but the order book, I'm told, is up to £15.5 million and, encouragingly, "several" bellwethers in the oil industry are making enquiries.

Broker WH Ireland still thinks Solid will make £3.3 million in the full-year on revenue up to £44.5 million. It currently trades on a forward PE ratio of 12.6.

Bags of potential

ULS Technology has done well since it listed on AIM in summer 2014. Floated at 40p, the white label web conveyancing comparison service now changes hands for double that.

It's an interesting business with bags of potential, not least in the estate agency sector where a comparison service should drive conveyancing business. It's keen to snap up a rival, too, so watch this space.

Working for sites like Moneysupermarket and Legal & General helped generate £9.78 million of revenue in the first half, flat on last year. Underlying pre-tax profit rose by 4% to £1.95 million, giving adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of 2.4p.

We knew pretty much what to expect thanks to a trading update three weeks ago, and the significant share price rally since prices in the good news for now.

Broker Numis Securities expects annual revenue of £20.2 million and profit of £4 million, up 5%. Forecast EPS of 4.7p puts the shares on a PE of 16.6.

This article is for information and discussion purposes only and does not form a recommendation to invest or otherwise. The value of an investment may fall. The investments referred to in this article may not be suitable for all investors, and if in doubt, an investor should seek advice from a qualified investment adviser.

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