What Lloyds Bank shares must do to indicate good times ahead

Lloyds Banking Group (LSE:LLOY)

Self-abuse takes many forms. It can be body piercings, tattoos, or perhaps the worst of all, trying to deal with a UK retail bank. In other words, it's that time of the month where we update our Lloyds Bank outlook. Why can't everything be like our YouGov report which moved to target the next day?

We've been waxing miserably about Lloyds and the potential of 57p making a guest appearance. As is normal, we'd given a caveat and it was at 64p. On the 19th, the share actually managed to better 64p for an hour or so, calling our entire drop logic into question.

It creates a confusing picture, where the share price now needs to weaken below 63.12p to suggest traffic in the direction of 62.45p. In itself, this isn't particularly alarming and tends to hint at the price being "parked" for a while rather than threatening to break the immediate uptrend (currently 58.5p in red)

However, if we take optimism from the share price managing above 64p, the immediate situation signals anything above 64.42p heading to an initial 65.25p. If triggered, it would need below 63.5p to cancel, so there's your stop loss position.

Unfortunately, to indicate good times ahead, the share really needs better than 'blue' on the chart, currently at 68.84p to justify investing in fizzy water as this apparently should allow movement to recommence to 75p, maybe even 86p if the market is having a laugh.

For now, until the next election or Brexit or hell freezing over, it appears Lloyds is probably trapped between 'red' and 'blue'.

This article is for information and discussion purposes only and does not form a recommendation to invest or otherwise. The value of an investment may fall. The investments referred to in this article may not be suitable for all investors, and if in doubt, an investor should seek advice from a qualified investment adviser.

Alistair Strang has led high-profile and "top secret" software projects since the late 1970s and won the original John Logie Baird Award for inventors and innovators. After the financial crash, he wanted to know "how it worked" with a view to mimicking existing trading formulas and predicting what was coming next. His results speak for themselves as he continually refines the methodology.